Ello As you all know, AMD is finally suing Intel, and yes they are gooing to win this case, afterall, they win in japan, and they are no idiots, they do this together with IBM, im sure. My question is, will it be smart to buy AMD stocks now ? i think it is, but the case can take 18 months, in the meantime the quote can go down (intel tells lies and all that). In the long time, AMD and Intel will have a marketshare of 50/50, so buying stock`s is always a good thing, but maybe we can step in lower ? What do you guys investors think about the share AMD ? Buying putts from intel is not such a good idea i think, intel is to big, if they got beaten by AMD(not by cpu, this is already happening, i mean from the court) it will almost not harm them. Looks like intel spent more on bribing reviewers to cover up it aint that great than they did in R&D.

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My 2 cents: I think this case is do or die for AMD. If they win, at the very least they will get much better prospects of gaining marketshare and winning OEM deals, even though this will likely happen in a period where Intel could have some very competitive parts again (conroe/meron). AMD *could* also be awarded some healthy compensations, which wouldn't hurt its stock price I guess.. but there is a catch; if AMD looses, the future looks exceptionally poor for them. Expect Intel to turn on the thumbscrews until it bleeds, counter sew them, and push them out almost all markets save perhaps the DIY market and white box vendors.

Personally, I might to take a gamble on it though. from what I read, it seems it will be exceptionally hard for Intel to win this one. This quote if from aces where I asked about this trial:



1&2 seem overly obvious, the first one being a simple fact, the second one proven by the Japanese investigation if nothing else. The third one... not sure how to interprete it, but if I apply common sense rather than reading it literally, I'd say shouldn't be too hard to prove that either.

In short: I expect AMD to win (75/25 odds), and to gain substantially from it. But I do see a possibility of AMD losing BIG time, so its still a gamble. Don't bet your house on it, but if you have some money you don't need in the next year or two, why not give it a try ?

BTW, also note the EU is investigating intels conduct, and if i'm not mistaken will finish its investigations long before the US trial will take place. If the EU determines intel abused its position, expect that to have a double effect of:
-possibly increasing AMD stock instantly
-providing evidence AMD can use in the US lawsuit.

just my semi random thoughts, I will not accept liability if you loose your entire fortune on AMD stocks


andrescasta

 

 

 

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