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> Nuclear War Scenarios, ...who will start it?
brainless
post Jul 17 2005, 06:41 PM
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I know, some time ago someone else started a debate on the same topic but somehow (I suppose it was not intentionally) twisted the facts so that the message was "China threatened the USA". This statement is _not_ true but the issue is interesting even without a current threat.

So what happened that makes me bring this topic onto the agenda?

According to the Financial Times, the chinese General Zhu Chenghu told a group of forein journalists that China might start a nuclear war if the USA decide to attack China in order to protect Taiwan, which is considered chinese territory by the chinese government.

QUOTE("Financial Times quoting Gen Zhu")
We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xian [in central China], he said. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.


As you might see yourself, Gen Zhu's war threat is harmless unless the USA decide to attack China and devastate one third of the country first (-> Map of China in the CIA World Factbook). As this is currently very unlikely to happen, the chinese response to this is just as unlikely.

And, one more quote to comfort the US citizens (and all others who might feel threatend by China now) among us:

QUOTE("FT")
Chinese government officials emphasised that Gen Zhu's remarks were seen as a minority opinion and being the first to use nuclear weapons would contradict Beijing's military strategy.


Sources (both Financial Times):
(1) "Top chinese general warns US over attack" http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d...000e2511c8.html

(2) "Beijing plays down general's threats" http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4062b908-f561-11d...000e2511c8.html

-----

so much about the story, let's start the debate:

As the FT quoted the chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China does not intend to be the first to use nuclear weapons against an enemy but does not object to strike back.

So where's the real threat now? I'd say it's the US since the Pentagon has plans to develop "Mini nukes" which shall be used to destroy bunkers and similar targets without harming the surroundings (which is, physically, nearly impossible). These nuclear weapons might be ready to use when the US government decides to intervene in the China-Taiwan-dispute and will probably be used since US military officials strongly deny that mini nukes might affect the area around a bunker.
Only when this happens, the chinese government has a reason to strike back with their own nukes.

by the way: China has "only" about 20 nukes without "first strike"-option while the USA have several thousands and do have plans for doing a nuclear first strike...
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steven
post Jul 17 2005, 07:04 PM
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QUOTE(brainless @ Jul 17 2005, 02:41 PM)
I know, some time ago someone else started a debate on the same topic but somehow (I suppose it was not intentionally) twisted the facts so that the message was "China threatened the USA". This statement is _not_ true but the issue is interesting even without a current threat.

So what happened that makes me bring this topic onto the agenda?

According to the Financial Times, the chinese General Zhu Chenghu told a group of forein journalists that China might start a nuclear war if the USA decide to attack China in order to protect Taiwan, which is considered chinese territory by the chinese government.
Sources (both Financial Times):
(1) "Top chinese general warns US over attack" http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d...000e2511c8.html

(2) "Beijing plays down general's threats" http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4062b908-f561-11d...000e2511c8.html

-----

so much about the story, let's start the debate:

As the FT quoted the chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China does not intend to be the first to use nuclear weapons against an enemy but does not object to strike back.

So where's the real threat now? I'd say it's the US since the Pentagon has plans to develop "Mini nukes" which shall be used to destroy bunkers and similar targets without harming the surroundings (which is, physically, nearly impossible). These nuclear weapons might be ready to use when the US government decides to intervene in the China-Taiwan-dispute and will probably be used since US military officials strongly deny that mini nukes might affect the area around a bunker.
Only when this happens, the chinese government has a reason to strike back with their own nukes.

by the way: China has "only" about 20 nukes without "first strike"-option while the USA have several thousands and do have plans for doing a nuclear first strike...
*




"I know, some time ago someone else started a debate on the same topic but somehow (I suppose it was not intentionally) twisted the facts so that the message was "China threatened the USA"."

Yeah, I think that might be me. However, I think that China can harm USA in a much better way than US can to China. The reason is because in a way, China "owns" most of the goods that are transported to North Ameria. Today, it is not surprising to see most of the stuff we see, on the Label it says: "Made in China" Therefore, in a war, not only will US experience a decrease in the transported essential goods, but they will also experience heavy military attacks from China. The reason is because China has a lot of army and, my point of view is that, because China has over-population, it won't even hurt them if a lot of Chinese die. Anyways, I think that there should not be any war, as it will affect all the countries surrounding US and China.


That's it from me. biggrin.gif
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ManOfSTEEL
post Jul 18 2005, 09:12 AM
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I think china is strong enough to start war, but do you think war can solve the problem? somehow, maybe yes, but if that happen you might not even hear or see the result of the war.smile.gif all of us would be all victim of nuclear war. China and US are both great country, strong and very powerful, when talking to massive distruction, well, they're both good, they can destroy the city or even the whole country, but what is the point? To proved that your country has own massive distruction? what about those who don't own that kind of weapon? victim is it?

In war there are no winner, they're both losser maybe they can survive but in return they're still losser, real fight didn't come with nuclear or missile or what. If you want to fight china against US then do it in a manner way, one-on-one like boxing without using gloves that was more great and can be called a supreme war:) what do you think?

Real fight for me didn't come with what weapon you have, or how many soldiers you have. Real fight comes is the one who fight without affecting the audience...smile.gif like us we're just and audience of war. smile.gif

What do you think? can I open this topic to those fighter and start fighting withou handing a weapon? smile.gif I hate war you know, there a many civilians died of that fxxx war...like what happen in some other country...smile.gif war is an evil act... real war is what I am looking for... mad.gif
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wariorpk
post Aug 19 2005, 12:55 PM
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I think that China would start the war because it seems they have a few rouge leaders who are not at all interested in peace. However, there is not a doubt in my mind that the United States would retaliate. I do not think anyone would win the war. I think that if this happens the Earth would cease to exist.
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saga
post Sep 13 2005, 07:05 AM
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In a scenario of a world war 3, history will repeat itself. The first weapon of mass destruction (nuclear weapon) that will ever be drop is by USA. It has all intention and capabilities.

United States Government is a rouge state. It does not respect anything exept its own agenda.

China wont dare to attack first with nuclear becuase USA could easily wipe out chinese with its thousands of nuclear. But if they are attack they will strike too for it is the natural reaction and the only one.

Not even North Korea will attack with nuclear if it has one.

To get respected by USA you must have a nuclear capability.

By the way, why do USA keeps a thousand nuclear weapons and yet it is stopping other countries to have one. Have we forgotten that only the USA have the stomach to use a weapon of mass destruction and they already did. Their first victim was Japan. I wonder who will be next.
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brainless
post Sep 13 2005, 04:14 PM
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and once again, the USA are about to move another step to a third nuclear strike ... As the Washington Post reports, a new nuclear strike plan has been worked out by the Pentagon but hasn't been approved by Donald Rumsfeld yet. This draft plan contains so many situations in which military commanders may ask the president for permission to use nuclear weapons that it would be possible to use nukes against about anyone...

QUOTE
[...]

1  (1) Geographic combatant commanders may request Presidential approval for
2  use of nuclear weapons for a variety of conditions. Examples include:

4  (a) An adversary using or intending to use WMD against US, multinational,
5  or alliance forces or civilian populations.

7  (b) Imminent attack from adversary biological weapons that only effects
8  from nuclear weapons can safely destroy.

10  © Attacks on adversary installations including WMD, deep, hardened
11  bunkers containing chemical or biological weapons or the C2 infrastructure required for
12  the adversary to execute a WMD attack against the United States or its friends and allies.
13 
14  (d) To counter potentially overwhelming adversary conventional forces,
15  including
16  mobile and area targets (troop concentration).
17 
18  (e) For rapid and favorable war termination on US terms.
19 
20  (f) To ensure success of US and multinational operations.
21 
22  (g) To demonstrate US intent and capability to use nuclear weapons to deter
23  adversary use of WMD.
24 
25  (h) To respond to adversary-supplied WMD use by surrogates against US
26  and multinational forces or civilian populations.

[...]


As everyone except for conspiracy theorists knows now, there were no WMD stockpiles in the Iraq since a couple of years -- but until late 2004, George W. and his comrades stuck to their lies which were not even backed by false intelligence reports (contrary, publicly available CIA reports stated that there was nothing but rumors)...
...and if this doctrine would have been in use 3 years ago, Kabul and Baghdad would look like Hiroshima and Nagasaki now :(

-> Washington Post Article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5091001053.html

-> "Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations" [I had to create a mirror on rapidshare since I didn't want to steal the guy I got it from's bandwidth]: http://rapidshare.de/files/5056610/jp3_12fc2.pdf.html
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wild20
post Sep 13 2005, 04:24 PM
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I think it is dumb. No one should have nuclear power. We have enough to destroy the world two times over! Do you see a problem with that?! There are too many people out there that are NOT responsible.

Lets say a nuclear war broke out. We would have to destroy everything that5 shot at us. There would be countries destroyed left and right. Food would be scarse, almost nothing would be okay to eat or drink because the aftermath would be the world filled with radiation from the nuclear bombs.

If China does destroy tons of cities, I know that we will destroy cities at twice the rate, and we will also be left vonurable if we use too many. Russia, iran, most likely iraq, and china have a good ammount of nuclear power. We underestimate their power. Even if we have more than they, the US can only hold so much nuclear blasts before it is one big whole in the ground. I say, end the nuclear programs. It will ease a lot of strain between countries. That is my two cents worth. I just think its a BAD idea.
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Milovoriel
post Sep 14 2005, 11:49 AM
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I think any unstable country, which also has nuclear capabilities could potentially instigate an attack .... so the USSR and Pakistan could fall into this category .... more worrying is the potential attack from countries who are suspected of having nuclear capabilities, but deny same .... so Israel, Iran and the Ukraine ....

However, the USA is paranoid and neurotic enough to instigate a nuclear attack .... and they have a history of it! ....


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